Thanks again @markbailey I asked JMP to create the table with some fake data, then modeled the results just to implement your recommendation. With the output table, I ran two models -- one model with the three main effects terms and three 2-way terms, and the target profile term as a random effect, and one model where I simply excluded the target profile term from the model. In the first model dialog, JMP recommended REML. I am using the SLS personality and effect leverage emphasis. In the second model, without the random effect term, JMP did not prompt me for a method.
In any case, the results in both models are quite similar -- perhaps because the data were meaningless since they were synthetic. All main effects and interactions were significant at 0.05 in both models. That seems counterintuitive -- its seems like treating the profile as a random effect term should have yielded much different results. But perhaps I am comparing apples to oranges in the way that I am modeling the data with these two models. In model 2, I am probably making bad conclusions since there's an effect I didn't account for. But I would have thought that would have resulted in fewer significant effects.
It should not affect the estimates of the fixed effects that much. Your design is orthogonal. It is like having two error terms, within and between targets. It is just more detailed information about the random variation.
Late to the party, but there are a number of things that come to mind, though I can't say I understand what exactly you want out of the experiment.
But this sounds interesting...so if you'll indulge me I have some questions (of course if you are happy with the responses you have received, I understand):
What are responses are trying to understand? Response time? Rate of response (from detecting to prosecuting)?
What is a "target profile"? And why don't you care about the interaction between the design factors and the target profile?
Aren't you trying to choose design factors, that affect response time, robust to target profile?
It seems you're only interested in the mean? Why not the variation? It is impossible for me to think about means without some idea of the variance...it is like giving the score for one team and not the other in a sporting event.
If you are using the mean, shouldn't you first test to see if that is the appropriate statistic? What if there are unusual data points in the 8 target profiles? Then the mean might be a poor summary statistic.
You are replicating the design, why? Do you know what noise is changing between replicates? If so, wouldn't you be interested in knowing the effect of that noise and possibly noise-by-factor interactions (think robust design). Treat the replicate as a block and a fixed effect. If not, then I understand the use of the replicate to get an "unbiased" estimate of the MSE.
A further thought is to treat the design structure as the whole plot and the profile factor as the subplot of a split-plot design. I would think you would want to know more about this source based on the statement. "All 8 are subject to the same treatment of course, but they vary in other ways and it is a source of variance"
Hi @statman jump on in.
@statman wrote:What are responses are trying to understand? Response time? Rate of response (from detecting to prosecuting)?
It's a command & control scenario where detectionTime is one (of many) measures of the effect of several design factors.
What is a "target profile"? And why don't you care about the interaction between the design factors and the target profile?
The target profiles add variety and reasonable error to the experiment, but they are simply a small sample from a large number of potential profiles. I don't really need to know whether there is a target profile effect.
Aren't you trying to choose design factors, that affect response time, robust to target profile?
well, yes
It seems you're only interested in the mean? Why not the variation? It is impossible for me to think about means without some idea of the variance...it is like giving the score for one team and not the other in a sporting event.
Hence my earlier concern that collapsing a bunch of values to a mean does not seem like a good idea. Perhaps a 90th percentile is more approp if I am trying to characterize a sample with a single value.
You are replicating the design, why? Do you know what noise is changing between replicates?
It's just the randomness associated with human operator actions. Two runs with the same factor levels will definitely yield different results, because the response is affected by human actions and decisions.
A further thought is to treat the design structure as the whole plot and the profile factor as the subplot of a split-plot design. I would think you would want to know more about this source based on the statement. "All 8 are subject to the same treatment of course, but they vary in other ways and it is a source of variance"
I tend to think of split-plot designs for cases where I have a hard-to-change factor, which is not the case here. This is a simulation where we can control the factors fairly easily from one run to the next.
You need to read "Split-plot designs for robust product experimentation" Box and Jones, Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 19, No.1, 1992. Hard to change factors is only one reason to do split-plots (and not the best reason). Restrictions on randomization can be used effectively to partition the noise in an experiment to simultaneously increase precision for detecting factor effects while not negatively affecting inference space.
When you are calculating the mean to use as a response variable, also calculate the standard deviation (or variance) and us eat as a response variable.
It seems you ultimately want to understand human actions and decisions. Randomizing those will not allow for estimating those effects nor will it allow understanding of those effects.
Ok, so in the split-plot option, I suppose I'd develop say, 6 scenarios that involve various target profiles. Those scenarios would be the main plots and would occupy a day. Then within those main plots, I would have split plots for levels of the system design under investigation: system A, system B.
day | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
am | A | A | B | A | B | B |
pm | B | B | A | B | A | A |
Scenario | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
What are the real benefits of this approach, if as is my case that changing the scenarios is not difficult?
It sounds like you are changing your original description of the situation. For your proposal, you are confounding the "scenarios" with Day (and the associated noise) which would not be a benefit. What I am suggesting is for each whole plot treatment combination (the factorial stated in your original post, I believe 2^3), run a set of treatments based on a factorial of target profiles (not sure what changes profile -to-profile, but I would think you could identify what those x's are and experiment on them). Instead of repeats, the factorial of the profile factors would create the sub plot. Since the whole plot and the sub plot degrees of freedom are analyzed separately (e.g., each with their own normal plot), you have increased the precision of the whole plot (less noise in just the whole plot) and increased the precision of the sub plot as well. Also you will get WP by SP interactions, so if the factors in the whole plots effects depend on which target profile was being used, you would be able to identify and quantify this.
I have attached a picture of the Factor Relationship Diagram. This includes the block, X1-X3 design factors in the whole plot and one factor for the Target Profile (TP) in the subplot (TP1 could be TP1-TP3 in a factorial if you want 8 different configurations of the target profiles, e.g, target size, target distance, target color). Or since you don't care about resolution of the TP factors (you're just trying to create a large inference space) you could do this in 4 treatments (half fraction of the 3 TP factors) per 30 minute run. Or you could take advantage of split-plot confounding to further reduce the number of treatments...with very little sacrifice of resolution. I would need to know more specifics of your situation.