BookmarkSubscribeRSS Feed
Choose Language Hide Translation Bar
Highlighted
ChrisLooi

Community Trekker

Joined:

May 29, 2017

Prediction Interval for Poisson Distribution

Dear JMP Communities,

 

I have data that are count/space.

 

In my case, (number of events occured / time). As such, it is naturally I would fit these data using Discrete Fit > Poisson.

 

Afterwards, JMP produces the fitted Poisson with results of Upper/Lower 95% Confidence Interval per below photo.

 

Fitted Poisson.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

My question is : How do I get Upper/Lower 95% Prediction Interval?

 

Thanks for the pointer.

 

B.r,

Chris

3 REPLIES 3
gzmorgan0

Super User

Joined:

Jul 25, 2016

Re: Prediction Interval for Poisson Distribution

I don't know which version you are using. Check the inverted red triangle menu next to the variable outline box

image.png

Here is an example script:

Names Default To Here( 1 );
dt = Open( "$SAMPLE_DATA/Quality Control/Airport.jmp" );
obj = Distribution( Column( :Delay ) );
obj << Fit Distribution( Poisson );
obj << Prediction Interval(0.95, 1);
ChrisLooi

Community Trekker

Joined:

May 29, 2017

Re: Prediction Interval for Poisson Distribution

Hi,

 

Thanks for looking into this question.

I am using JMP ver 14.

 

I do know there is a "Prediction Interval" option as you have pointed out.

 

The reason I am questioning that is because, you can see the Confidence Interval calculated are two totally different value (based on 95%).

 

In my example:

Confidence Interval 95% caculated (based on t density function) is 22.6 to 48.1.

Confidence Interval 95% calculated (based on Poisson density function) is 32.5 to 38.4.

 

Due to this, it makes me wonder that the Prediction Interval option as you have shown will calculate based on the t density function rather than Poisson.

 

Hope this brings the question clearly now.

 

B.r,

Chris

markbailey

Staff

Joined:

Jun 23, 2011

Re: Prediction Interval for Poisson Distribution

You are correct - the prediction interval for the lambda is not available in the Distribution platform. Equivalently, I fit an intercept-only Poisson loglinear regression model with the GLM platform to obtain the same estimates, but it does not provide prediction intervals either.

Learn it once, use it forever!