I ran a simple AR(1) model on 24 rows of trending data just to see the output. It provided the AR(1) coefficient and the intercept - however, they made no sense to me. For example, I thought that if the output for an AR(1) is 0.8 and Intercept = 105, then the forecasting equation would be for y(t) = 105 + 0.8*y(t-1). But the output of the parameter estimates do not fit this. What am I missing? Thanks