Coronavirus Tests per Case: How many tests to find one COVID-19 case? (2020-US-EPO-631)
The purpose of this poster presentation is to display COVID-19 morbidity and mortality data available on-line from Our World in Data whose contributors ask the key question: “How many tests to find one COVID-19 case?”
We use SAS JMP Analyze to help answer the question. Smoothing test data from Our World in Data, yields seven-day moving average or SMA(7) total tests per thousand in five countries for which coronavirus test data are reported: Belgium, Italy, South Korea, the United Kingdom and United States.
Similarly, seven-day moving average or SMA(7) total cases per million of were derived using the Time Series Smoothing option. Coronavirus tests per case were calculated by dividing smoothed total tests by smoothed total cases and multiplying by a factor of 1,000. These ratios of smoothed tests to smoothed cases were themselves smoothed.
Additionally, Box-Jenkins ARIMA(1,1,1) time series models were fitted to smoothed total deaths per million to graphically compare smoothed case-fatality rates with smoothed tests per case ratios.
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Speaker | Transcript |
| Douglas Okamoto | In our poster presentation we display COVID-19 data available from our world and data, who's database sponsors, ask the question why is data on testing important |
| We use JMP version. | |
| To help us answer the question. | |
| Seven Day moving averages are calculated from January 21 to July 21 | |
| Daily per capita COVID-19 tests and coronavirus tests in seven countries United States, Italy, Spain, Germany, Great Britain, Belgium and South Korea. | |
| Core by owners test per case where calculated by dividing smooth test by smooth cases and multiplying by a factor 1000 | |
| Daily COVID-19 test data yields smoothed test data per thousand in Figure one | |
| Testing in LA states in blue trims upward with two tests per thousand daily on July 21st 10 times more than South Korea in red. | |
| Which trends downward | |
| The x axis is normalized the figure one, two days since moving averages number one or more tests per thousand. | |
| In figure two smooth coronavirus cases per million in Europe and South Korea trend downward after peaking months earlier than the US in blue, which averaged 2200 cases per month million on July 21st, with no end in sight. | |
| The x axis is normalized to the number of days since moving averages of 10 or more cases per million. | |
| Combining tabular results from figure one and figure to smooth COVID-19 test per case in Figure three shows South Korean testing in red peaks at 685 tests per case in May 38 times USP performance in lieu | |
| Of 22 tests per case in June. | |
| Since the x axis is dated figure three represents a time series. | |
| The reciprocal of tests for case cases protest is a measure of product to a positivity one in 22 or 4.5% of positive cases in the US compares with 0.15% positivity in South Korea. | |
| And 0.5 to 1.0% in Europe. | |
| At a March 30 who press briefing. Dr. Michael Ryan suggested a positive rate less than 10% or even better, less than 3% as a general benchmark of adequate testing. | |
| JMP analysis JMP analyzed was used to fit Box Jenkins time series models to smooth test per case in the US for March 13 of April 25 | |
| predictive values from April 26 two main ninth or forecast from a fitted model and auto-regressive integrated moving average or ARIMA 111 | |
| Model the figure for a time surge of smooth tests per case from mid March to April shows a rise in the number of us test for case not a decline as predicted during the 14 day forecast period. | |
| In summary, 10 or more test cases tests were performed per case to provide adequate testing in the United States COVID-19 testing in Europe and South Korea was more than adequate with hundreds of tests per case. | |
| Equivalent only the positive rate or number of cases protest was less than 10% in the US. | |
| Whereas positivity in Europe and South Korea was well under 3% | |
| When our poster was submitted the US totaled 4 million coronavirus cases more than your European countries and South Korea combined | |
| Us continues to be plagued by state by state disease outbreaks. Thank you. |
