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gustavjung
Level III

How to interpret results of an experiment where they are statistically significant during 2 weeks and are not during 2 other weeks?

Hello,
I am analyzing an experiment where test variation had statistically significant results for some outcomes during 2nd and 3rd weeks with a difference of 20-30%, but had insignificant results for the other 2 weeks (1st and 4th) with a difference of ~0%.
How can I address the interpretation of these observations?
What is the appropriate statistical method to choose to check if the difference in observations among 2nd+3rd and 1st+4th are just within random variance?
Can we still make a valid conclusion for this experiment based on the total results?

 

We have checked any external factors which could influence the results and couldn't find any.2023-04-05_22-22-30.jpg

Table version:

 TrialsSuccess step 1Diffp-valueSuccess step 1 which reports about step 3Diffp-valueSuccess step 3Diffp-value
 
Test
Control
Test
Control
  
Test
Control
  
Test
Control
  
Weeks      
March 8-14883588901925852590-0.19%0.510681038+3.6%0.2187191-1.360.89
March 15-21884078832426562596+2.2%0.211021037+6.17%0.08200167+20%0.04
March 22-28907189213528352763+4%0.05912771198+8.260.02210165+30%0.006
March 29 - April 4914969161325062521-0.40.5710841139-4.7%0.251371370.13%0.5
               
Total35897936109110582104701.6%0.1145314412+3%0.06734660+11.8%0.018
               
1st + 4th weeks17985418063250915111+0.040.521522177-0.72%0.8324328-0.79%0.92
2nd + 3rd weeks17912518045954915359+3.23%0.0423792235+7.24%0.017410332+24%0.003
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2 REPLIES 2
statman
Super User

Re: How to interpret results of an experiment where they are statistically significant during 2 weeks and are not during 2 other weeks?

I apologize, I don't have time right now to enter your data into JMP and take a look, but, in general, you seem to have either a Block effect or a Block-by-factor interaction effect.  Where you would want to investigate is: Why are the results different between weeks? Make sure the differences first pass the sensibility test.  That is, does the data vary enough for further analysis.  Is there enough variation in the Y's to be of practical importance?  Then, proceed with analysis of a Block design (this varies depending on whether you consider the Block effects to be random or fixed).

 

Blocks as used to partition the noise in an experiment.  The method is quite useful as you can reap the benefits of both increasing the inference space of your experiment without compromising precision (and, in some cases, assess the robustness of your model).

"All models are wrong, some are useful" G.E.P. Box
gustavjung
Level III

Re: How to interpret results of an experiment where they are statistically significant during 2 weeks and are not during 2 other weeks?

Thank you! I will look into this from Block design standpoint.

I have added confidence intervals for absolute and relative effects of the last Y (success step 3).
Can we conclude from this data that because CIs of relative effects are overlapping, then the 2 other weeks of the same experiment are just a result of variation? If so perhaps we can just be ok with that 2 weeks showing different results, since this is a behavioral online experiment.

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