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Using Simulation Methods in JMP® to Prevent Supply Chain Fires (2020-EU-30MP-356)

Level: Intermediate


Stephen Pearson, Specialist Data Scientist, Syngenta


Many powdered materials slowly oxidize with time which generates heat. If in a bulk form (such as during transport or storage) then heat generation can exceed heat loss, leading to ignition. Climate control and limiting packing amounts can reduce the risk, but this increases the costs for the consumer through reduced logistical options, larger shipping volumes and disposal of additional packaging. Laboratory tests are well established to determine a safe packing size. However, they are costly, especially for new products where limited amounts of material are available. The physics of the oxidation process can be simulated provided all the material properties are known. Using JMP® we will demonstrate how to combine these two approaches to reduce the amount of thermal stability testing required: 1) generate a constrained spacing-filling experimental design; 2) control the simulation software (COMSOL Multiphysics®) via JSL; 3) build meta-models; 4) simulate the outcome for new materials. By obtaining estimates of different material properties with each test, the prediction uncertainty can be updated to suggest the range of suitable packaging given the available data. This enables a data-driven approach to the selection of laboratory tests.