10년간 서울 아파트 실거래가 추이 분석

[#1]

Recently, a social issue as big as Corona in Korea is house price it can be said The price of housing, which is one of the three elements of human life, namely, clothing, food, and a place to live, is skyrocketing without knowing it.

2010 in this post. From July 2020. The purpose of this study is to visually check the trends of apartment sales prices in Seoul and differences by administrative districts by using the real transaction price information for apartment sales in Seoul up to June. In particular, about apartment sales price trends in 3 districts of Gangnam (Gangnam/Seocho/Songpa) and Mayongseong (Mapo/Yongsan/Seongdong), which are newly highlighted areas with rapidly rising house prices, and the remaining administrative districts in Seoul excluding Gangnam 3rd district and Mayongseong. Let's take a look.

Note: the data is Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Actual Transaction Price Disclosure System The data was used, and the linked graph inserted below can be found at the link below (JMP Public Posting).

Analysis of real transaction price of apartments in Seoul for 10 years

In this post, data analysis was conducted under five themes.

One. Actual transaction price of apartment sales in Seoul for 10 years

The average price of an apartment in Seoul was in 2010. July 2020 from 46,375 million won. It can be seen that in June, it rose 90.5% (about 2 times) to 8,833 million won. In order to escape the trap of average price, we would like to report the 10-year trend of each of the 25 administrative districts in Seoul.

2.Trends in apartment sales and real transaction prices by administrative autonomous districts in Seoul over 10 years

The above data shows the actual transaction price of apartments in 25 administrative autonomous districts in Seoul over the past 10 years. can be checked. Gangnam-gu 2020. As of June, the average sale price was about 1.8 billion won, a 134% increase over 10 years. In the case of Seongdong-gu among Mayong-seong, which is a rising area after Gangnam 3, the increase rate was 144%, showing a steeper rise than Gangnam-gu.

Gangnam-gu : 75,913 million won (2010. July) -> 177.572 million won (2020. June) +134%
Seongdong-gu: 44,166 million won (2010. July) -> 1078.56 million won (2020. June) +144%

Dobong-gu : 25,693 million won (2010. July) -> 41.6.26 million won (2020. June) +62%

[Table] 2010 by 25 administrative districts in Seoul. compared to July 2020. June Apartment Sales Actual Transaction Price Increase

 

3. Trends in apartment sales and transaction prices by district in Seoul for 10 years

Seoul is generally divided into three regions. It can be divided into 3 districts of Gangnam, which unites Seocho/Gangnam/Songpa-gu, and Mayongseong (Mapo/Yongsan/Seongdong-gu) where house prices have recently risen, and other areas. As can be seen in the table below, it can be seen that the overall increase rate of Seoul is 91%, and the upward trend is particularly strong in the Mayongseong area, while other regions show a relatively low rate of increase.

 

4. Trends in apartment sales and real transaction prices by district/administrative district in Seoul over 10 years

A Local Data Filter was created in the upper left corner to view the actual transaction price trend by administrative autonomous district according to each regional division, so that the data can be viewed by drill-down easily. Please check the trend of administrative autonomous districts according to regional classification through the Local Data Filter on the upper left of the graph inserted below.

5. Trends in apartment sales and transaction prices by district in Seoul during the current government period

Lastly, I would like to verify whether the real estate stabilization measures, one of the key tasks of the current government, are having an effect, and by examining the trend of sales prices after the announcement of the measures.

The x-axis is the apartment transaction date (here, 2017, after the inauguration of the current government. Only data after May are selected and shown), and the dotted line indicates the month of the announcement of the real estate measures announced after the inauguration of the current government. You can check the fluctuations in the sale price of apartments in Seoul after the announcement of each measure.

Although there is a positive effect of lowering apartment sales prices according to the measures (refer to the link and reference materials below for detailed real estate measures), it is confirmed that it has not been enough to break the overall uptrend. In addition, it can also be confirmed that the effect of the measures is reversed for each regional division (Gangnam 3 districts/Mayongseong/other regions).

For reference, the current government (2017. Launched in May) is 7. Until the 10th, 22 real estate measures are being announced.

Moon Jae-in government for 3 years... 21 rounds of real estate policy summary

Note: The 22nd real estate policy of the current government

▲ 2017

① June 19 countermeasures (establishment of real estate regulatory base)

② 8/2 measures (expansion/reinforcement of regulated areas)

③ 9·5 follow-up measures (extension of regulated area, upper limit on the sale price of private housing land)

④ October 24 measures (Comprehensive measures for household debt)

⑤ 11/29 countermeasures (Housing Welfare Roadmap)

⑥ 12/13 measures (activation of rental housing registration)

▲2018

⑦ 7/5 measures (housing support for newlyweds and young people)

⑧ 8·27 Countermeasures (Expansion and Reinforcement of Regulated Areas)

⑨ 9/13 Countermeasures (Expansion and Reinforcement of Financial Regulations)

⑩ Measures for September 21st (1st metropolitan area housing supply plan)

⑪ 12/19 measures (2nd metropolitan area housing supply plan)

▲2019

⑫ Measures 1 and 8 (reinforcement of rental housing management)

⑬ 4·24 measures (comprehensive housing plan)

⑭ May 7 measures (3rd metropolitan area housing supply plan)

⑮ 8·12 measures (applying the upper price limit for private housing land)

⑯ 10·1 measures

⑰ Measures 11 and 6 (Private residential land sale price upper limit applied area)

⑱ 12/16 measures

▲ 2020

⑲ February 20 measures (Gyeonggi-do financial regulations)

⑳ 5/6 measures (activation of public redevelopment)

㉑ June 17 measures (strong loan regulation measures)

㉒ 7·10 Measures (Measures to supplement the stability of the housing market)