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Prediction of disease specific death rates by using ecological indicators and smoking prevalence


Philip Morris International has developed Population Health Impact model of lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality rates for 12 industrialized countries, by age and sex, by which the quantitative impact of tobacco products consumption, including Heat-not-Burn products, on smoking-related disease mortality rates can be estimated.

In addition to this model, we developed a series of ecological models, implemented in JMP, that allow predictive disease-specific mortality rates modeling using socio-economic ecological risk factors such as Gross Domestic Product  (GDP) per capita, inflation rate, employment, population in urban agglomerates in addition to population tobacco products consumption. The data covers 73 variables, in 47 industrialized countries, for the period of 2000-2014. Disease-specific mortality rates models have been developed by and across sex for the 2007-2014 period and all models include GDP and at least one smoking tobacco product consumption variable. In this presentation, we will present a high level overview of models generated and implemented in JMP and how we used them to forecast disease-specific mortality rates for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035.

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