What Are the Odds? Flipping a Flying Disc, Bowl, Cat
Statisticians like to talk about flipping coins, especially fair coins, which have an equal chance of being heads or tails. But what about flipping other things? In particular, as an Ultimate Frisbee player, I want to know what the odds are for a flying disc. Maybe knowing the odds will give me an advantage since a disc flip is used to determine which team starts on offense.
How do I figure out the answer? Flip a disc 10 times? 100 times? 1,000 times? Or study up on physics? If I flip a disc 100 times, what kind of answer do I need to be confident that the odds are not really 1:1 like a coin?
I'll tell you what I know in my Discovery 2008 session on Presentation Quality Graphics on June 16 at 4:15 p.m., but first tell me what you know. Post comments with theory and guesses on the chances of the following items landing as pictured. Two are filled in for you in the table below.
Bonus question: If I flip the same item twice, what are the odds of same versus different results?