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Dec 8, 2016

The Visualization and Analysis of Live Birth Data Using JMP®

(English follows Japanese)

日本語タイトル:JMPによる出生数データの可視化と分析 ~誕生日ランキングから更に分析を進めて~

SAS Institute Japan株式会社 JMPジャパン事業部 テクニカルグループ
システムエンジニア 増川 直裕


“あるクラスの中に同じ誕生日がいる人の確率は?” という有名な確率の問題があるが、この確率は通常、1年の中で生まれる日は同様に確からしいとして計算される。しかし実際の出生数は、クリスマスである12月25日は他の日より多く、正月三が日である1月1日から3日までは他の日より少ないなど、ある特定の日やその周辺の日では出生数に偏りが存在する。そのため、出生数の多い日順にランク付けした「誕生日ランキング」なるものが存在する。



The Visualization and Analysis of Live Birth Data Using JMP®: Advancing Analysis From Date of Birth Ranking

Naohiro Masukawa, Systems Engineer, Technical Group, JMP Japan Division, SAS Institute Japan


The question "What is the probability of two people in the same class sharing the same birthday?" is a famous probability question, but this probability is normally calculated as equally probable for all of the days in a year. However, there are more live births on Christmas, December 25, than on other days, and fewer live births during the first three days of the new year, January 1 to 3. In other words, there are biases in the number of live births on certain days and their surrounding days. For that reason, there is a "date of birth ranking" in which the days are ranked in order of the number of live births. In this presentation, I will use survey data regarding live births after 1996 from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's Population Survey Report. By understanding the days and months in which there are live birth biases – visualizing the number of live births per day and calculating and comparing these live birth distribution biases per year – the causes of the biases can be considered. Further, by considering the transitions in live births by year and biases in the number of live births by month, a statistical model that explains the number of live births by year, month, and day can be established, and annual and monthly impacts can be considered. In particular, I will explain trial-and-error results for the visualization of live births through a JMP demonstration.

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