Level: Beginner
Melissa Reed, MS Business Analytics and Data Science, Oklahoma State University
This project is about Early Presidential Primaries and how the results from those primaries affect who wins the Presidency. This research will focus on the Presidential Primaries where a new President was elected, so that would be the elections of 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2016. The elections in 2000, 2008, and 2016 will be focused on because no incumbent running, however, the election of 1992 Bill Clinton defeated the current President George H. W. Bush to win the Presidency. The election of 1992 will be focused on because George H. W. Bush is the only President that did not get re-elected since the Cold War ended in 1991. The specific primaries that will be focused on are the Iowa Caucus, the New Hampshire Primary, and Super Tuesday, because they are the primaries that help predict the rest of the country’s primaries since they are early in the election cycle. The hypothesis for this research is that the candidate that wins most of the Early Presidential Primaries wins the Candidacy and the Presidency. JMP software will be used to test the hypothesis. The research concluded that the person who wins the most primaries, will most likely win the Party Candidate but will not always win the Presidency.
Auto-generated transcript...
Speaker | Transcript |
| melissareed | Hello, my name is Melissa Reed and I will be presenting about my poster, and it is about the early presidential primaries. I am from Oklahoma State University. |
| So a little bit of background about the early presidential primary is that a lot of people aspire to be the President of the United States and not actually...not a lot of people actually run for it. |
| And the campaigns usually start about two years before the November election, but a lot of campaigns do not make it to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions for a number of reasons, because they didn't either get enough votes or a lot of time, they run out of money beforehand. |
| The early presidential primaries that this poster focuses on are the Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary and Super Tuesday. The reason that these were chosen is because they are three early primaries and typically, the way that these go, the rest of the country will follow. |
| And they are just really important. So the hypothesis for this project is the person who wins the most votes during the early presidential primaries will more than likely win the Democratic or Republican candidacy for the President of the United States. |
| Looking at the elections of 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2016, they were focused on because a new president won the President... |
| won the Office of the President of the United States. 1992 is focused on because because President Bill Clinton defeated the current president George HW Bush, and George HW Bush was the first president since the Cold War ended not to be reelected. |
| 200, 2008, and 2016 are focused on because there were no incumbents running. |
| You can see on the poster that in 1992 and 2000 and 2016, the candidate that won the Democratic and Republican candidacy for the President of the United States |
| were the two people that had the most votes out of those three early presidential primaries. |
| However, in 2008 Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were the top two candidates that got the most amount of votes, but because they are both Democrats they could not both get the candidacy, and the Republicans named John McCain. |
| So to do the analysis, I used to JMP to run a correlation analysis and a logistic regression. |
| I ran the coordination analysis between the year and how many votes were cast to see if there was a connection between them and the correlation analysis to prove that the year, there's a connection between the year and the amount of votes that were cast. |
| I ran the logistic regression between the candidate, the year and a state primaries to see who was most like...most likely candidate was to beat the other candidate. The results of those elections...the results of that regression are down below in the result sections. |
| Now in 1992 the New Hampshire primary was the one that I focused on because George HW Bush did not have anyone running against him in the Iowa Caucus, so so I chose New Hampshire for that one. And the rest of the elections from 1992, 2000, 2008 and 2016, |
| the logistic regression showed that the person who is most likely the win isn't the candidate who's actually the person to get the most votes. In 2008, Barack Obama was shown to win some elections against him and Hillary Clinton, but not against everyone else. |
| In conclusion, the person that wins the most votes the Iowa Caucus, the New Hampshire primary and Super Tuesdays will most likely win the candidacy for the Democratic and the Republican |
| and they will run for the President of United States. Now in 2008 there was a difference because the two people that won the most votes in those primaries were two Democrats. Thank you so much. |
