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Predicting the Success Rate of Video Games

 Predicting the Success Rate of Video Games

 

Goutam Chakraborty, PhD, Professor of Spears School; Parijat Ghosh, Graduate Student, Oklahoma State University

The gaming industry has expanded rapidly and is one of the fastest growing industries in USA. Over the last 12 years consumers’ attitudes towards and acceptance of the gaming industry has changed resulting into widely diverse demographics of players and large sales volumes. As a result of its vastness and demographic expansion, the cost of development in the gaming industry has also considerably increased. The average age of people playing games has also considerably increased. Although many people believe that there are less number of female gamers, the actual proportion is now close to 40%. Overall, the game industry has done a remarkable job over the last few years in coming up with new games targeting different groups of demographics. The gaming industry has also partnered with Hollywood to make video games for movies such as Harry Potter, Spider Man, Alice in Wonderland and so on. Video game which was originally meant only for entertainment and hobby is now a profession by itself. However, little research exists with regards to which variables and models may predict sales success of a game. In this research, I compare the performance of a logistic regression, decision tree and a neural net in predicting the success for video games using published data from commonly available sources.

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