JMP® Applications in Photovoltaic Reliability
D.C. Jordan, PhD, Senior Reliability Engineer – National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Chris Gotwalt, PhD, Director of Statistical Research Development
The ability to accurately predict power delivery over the course of time is of vital importance to the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Two significant cost drivers are the efficiency with which sunlight is converted into power and how this relationship develops over time. The accurate knowledge of power decline over time, also known as degradation rates, is essential to all stakeholders — utility companies, integrators, investors and scientist alike. Outdoor testing plays an important part in quantifying degradation rates of different technologies in various climates. Due to seasonal changes, however, several complete cycles (typically three to five years) traditionally need to be completed to obtain reasonably accurate degradation rates. In a rapidly evolving industry such a long time span is often unacceptable. Advanced time series modeling – such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling – can be utilized to decrease the required time span and is comparable to some non-linear modeling. In addition, we will demonstrate how the JMP 9 map feature was used to reveal important technological trends by climate.