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Modeling Coral Reef Resilience in the Republic of Palau

Coral reefs across the planet are threatened by the rising seawater temperatures driven by climate change. Although many corals indeed "bleach," and consequently perish, as a result of prolonged exposure to abnormally high temperatures, some species (or even genotypes within a single species) maintain a marked level of climate resilience. Historically, we have identified these "super corals" in post-hoc fashion: searching through the proverbial rubble of a highly impacted reef to find the survivors. For coral reef restoration and other purposes, a more targeted, proactive means of identifying climate-resilient corals would be preferred to this "needle in a haystack" approach. To this end, I showcase a rich coral eco-physiological data set acquired during a month-long research expedition to the most remote corners of the Micronesian nation of Palau. After some rudimentary data processing and visualization, I show, using JMP Pro 17, how predictive models of coral resilience can be built relatively easily. I then demonstrate how GUIs derived from the models' prediction profilers can be embedded on web pages so that they can be used by scientists as a planning tool. Specifically, the model-based profilers allow researchers to predict the environmental conditions (e.g., depth, type of coral reef, salinity) at which they are most likely to find resilient corals during their bioprospecting surveys. This analytical tool will therefore aid marine biologists in locating corals with high climate tolerance that should be propagated in efforts to restore degraded reefs.