topic Re: Predicting Rainy Days in Discussions

Predicting Rainy Days

gudetama — Fri, 09 Jun 2023 00:30:02 GMT

Hi all! I'm wondering if JMP can help with spot a pattern in the days leading up to rain.

If I have years of historical daily (even hourly) environmental data which includes temperature, humidity, pollution, etc, would JMP be able to help spot a pattern leading up to rainy days? If so, what type of analysis would be best suited for a study like this? The "sequential" element is tricky to me, as I'd like to find a pattern in the sequence of events leading up to the rainy day.

For example, an ideal finding may be a relationship between a steady rise of temperature and decline of humidity in the 5 days leading up to rainy days, with a sudden temperature decline finally triggering the rain.

Any thoughts would be appreciated! Thank you.

Re: Predicting Rainy Days

Thierry_S — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 13:27:26 GMT

Hi,
Considering that it takes the National Weather Service and NOAA thousands of sensors, dozens of satellites, and a few supercomputers to produce the weather forecast everyday, I'm not sure that JMP is exactly up to the task. However, if your inquiry is more about learning about the analysis of time-series analysis, you may find the following post useful:

Let us know if any of this helps.
Best,
TS

Re: Predicting Rainy Days

gudetama — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 06:05:19 GMT

Thank you so much! This is a push in the right direction for me. And yes, I am just using this as a learning project, I’d love to get more comfortable with this type of analysis.

Re: Predicting Rainy Days

P_Bartell — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 14:17:01 GMT

In addition to the thoughtful contribution from @Thierry_S your scenario is tailor made for JMP Pro Functional Data Explorer/Modeling capabilities. Here is link to the JMP Pro documentation for FDE:JMP Pro Functional Data Explorer

Re: Predicting Rainy Days

gudetama — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 17:00:02 GMT

Thank you for the recommendation! I'm excited to learn more about this.

Re: Predicting Rainy Days

statman — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 17:06:25 GMT

gudetama,

Just a note, as you have already been provided with some good direction by previous responders, you might start learning about these methods with a simpler situation. Predicting the weather is very noisy and you might get discouraged when your models don't predict very well. In any case, have fun in your pursuit.

Re: Predicting Rainy Days

gudetama — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 19:36:18 GMT

Thank you, I will start with the sample dataset included for the FDE capability in jmp and poke around first. I appreciate the suggestion!

Re: Predicting Rainy Days

P_Bartell — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 20:55:15 GMT

FDE is but one method...I can think of about a dozen others that could work too. Starting with good old fashioned ordinary least squares regression to non linear methods such as tree based techniques. I would start with just time series plots of all the variables.